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Showing posts from October, 2015

Risk Analysis Example -- Housing

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The mayor of the city I currently call home has just announced a housing emergency. Both house prices and rents have been increasing at one of the fastest rates in the country. Sellers in hot neighborhoods are seeing bidding wars and prices end up $100,000 over asking. Rents have been jumping and people are getting 30-day notice evictions when they can't afford the increases. We have an extremely low vacancy rate across the city. Naturally, in this environment the homeless population is also increasing, as the city's most vulnerable are forced out of housing entirely. There are new rental units being built, but they are frequently at the high end -- upscale downtown high rises and the like that many can't afford.

This is a huge risk for any city and it serves as an interesting example of risk calculation for one of the most important areas in everyone's life... where they will lay their heads. We're going to look at it from the perspective of several hypothetical r…

Wrapping Up Time

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In the past week, I've started four different posts, all of which are wrong, wrong, wrong.

After some flailing and, I admit, a bit of self judgement and doubt (why would anyone ever care about anything I have to say?), I realize that I'm suffering from a crisis of timing. See, it's a time for endings and not a time for new things. And I have several things dragging that I need to wrap up right now before I can resume forward momentum.


My family is just emerging from a long (4.5 years long actually) period of stress. The event that started this situation happened during a Mercury retrograde, so I knew that it would also end during one. For the past couple of years I've been hoping that each retrograde period would be the one. Finally, the situation resolved itself last week. The practical result is that the entire household promptly got bad colds. At the same time, we've been feeling a strong urge to kick off new projects and plans. However, the timing is not quite …

PMPM Execution -- Energy Part Two: Treating the Problem

First of all, how much do you weigh?

Really? Well, I bet that if you actually weighed yourself morning and evening for a month, you'd find that your weight fluctuates five pounds or so. Not that I'm recommending you do that. The point is that your weight is actually a sort of baseline that you typically hover around. At any particular moment, you can be more or less than that weight based on what you just ate, your hormones, your fluid intake, and so on. This is your normal range. If your intake of calories equals the amount of expenditure, you stay right around your normal weight.
Now, let's say that you spend three weeks in Paris in a room above a patisserie. Or that you spend a week with the stomach flu. You will not be within your normal weight range, but you could still say your baseline weight is the same. You are unusually heavy or light for your weight. But any change will typically readjust after you are home or well again.

Spend a year moonlighting as an ice crea…